Trading Forex Using Chart Patterns
Trading Forex Using Chart Patterns
Learn To Trade Forex Using Chart Patterns
This forex blog will outline the trading forex using chart patterns. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis used by professional forex traders to land huge profits in forex trading. This forex blog provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the forex market.
Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecasting tools for the forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effects, while the fundamentalist studies the cause of the forex market movements. Successful Forex Traders combine both approaches for the best results.
WHY IS VOLATILITY A TRADER'S BEST FRIEND
Note: If both fundamental analysis and technical analysis point to the same direction, your chances for profitable trading are much better.
So let us begin with the technical analysis:
Technical and Fundamental Analysis differ significantly, but both are extremely useful forecasting tools for forex trading. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the result, while the fundamentalist studies the why of the forex market movements. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for the best results.
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying what has occurred in the past using charts (discussed in another article). Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen, and takes into account the price of instruments and volume of trading, and creates charts from that data as a primary tool for forecasting forex trading movement. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.
Technical analysis is built on three essential principles
- Market actions discounts most everything: This means that the actual price is dictated by everything that is known to the market that could affect it. Some of these factors are fundamentals (inflation, interest rates, etc.), supply and demand, political factors (yes even the upcoming elections can be a factor) and market sentiment. But, the pure technical analysis is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any change. - Prices move in trends: Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For most patterns, and trends there is a high probability that they will produce the results that were expected.
There are also recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. - History repeats itself: Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years, and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time. Since patterns have worked well in the past, it is assumed that they will continue to work well into the future.
Disadvantages of technical analysis
- Some critic claim that the Dow approach ("prices are not random") is quite weak, since today's prices do not necessarily project future prices; - The critics claim that signals about the changing of trends appear too late, often after the change had already taken place.
Therefore, traders who rely on technical analysis react too later, hence losing about 1/3 of the fluctuation; - Analysis made in short time intervals may be exposed to "noise", and may result in a misreading of market directions; - The use of most patterns has been widely publicized in the last several years.
Most successful traders know these patterns and often act on them slowly in concern. This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, as waves of buying or selling are created in response to "bullish" or "bearish" patterns.
Advantages of Technical Analysis
- Technical analysis can be used to project movements of any asset available for trade in the capital market; - Technical analysis focuses on what is currently occurring in the forex market, as opposed to what has occurred, and is therefore valid at any price level at any time; - The technical approach concentrates on prices, which neutralizes external factors.
Pure technical analysis is based on objective tools (charts, tables) while disregarding emotions and other factors; - Signaling indicators sometimes point to the imminent end of a trend, maintain profit or minimize losses.
Various techniques and terms you will want to know
Many different techniques and indicators can be used to follow and predict trends in markets. The objective is to predict the major components of the trend: its direction, its level and the timing. Some of the most widely known include:
- Bollinger Bands - a range of price volatility named after John Bollinger, who invented them in the 1980s. They evolved from the concept of trading bands, and can be used to measure the relative height or depth of price.
A band is plotted two standards deviations away from a simple moving average. As standard deviation is measured of volatility, Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to market conditions. When the market becomes more volatile, the bands spread wider (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands tighten (move closer to the average).
Bollinger Bands are one of the most popular technical analysis techniques used by traders. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought is the market, and the closer prices move to the lower band, the more oversold is the market.
WHY MOVING AVERAGES ARE POPULAR
The reason for using forex charts, what they are, different types of charts, how to properly use them, and what mistakes to avoid when using forex charts. Charts are a major tool in forex trading. There are many kinds of charts, each will help to visually analyze the forex market conditions, assess and create better forecasting, and identify forex market patterns and behavior.
Forex Charts are based on the forex market action involving price. Charts are a major tool in forex trading. There are many kinds of charts, each will help to visually analyze the forex market conditions, assess and create better forecasting, and identify forex market patterns and behavior.
Forex charts and spreads weigh heavily on the return on your trading strategy (this can have a huge affect on your profit or loss). As a trader, you are solely interested in buying low and selling high (like futures and commodities trading on Wall Street). Wider Forex charts and spreads means buying higher and having to sell lower.
A half-pip lower spread does not necessarily sound like much, but it can easily mean the difference between a profitable trade and one that loses money. The tighter the spread is the better things are going to be for you (Happy Days).
Nevertheless, tight Forex charts and spreads are only meaningful when they pair up with good execution of a well laid out trading strategy. A good example of this is, as you analyze your forex chart it shows a tight spread, but your trade shows it has filled, or mysteriously rejected.
When this occurs repeatedly, it means that your broker is showing tight Forex charts and spreads but is effectively delivering wider Forex charts and spreads. Rejected forex trades, delayed execution, slipping, and stop-hunting are strategies that some brokers use to get rid of the promise of tight Forex charts and spreads (so be on the look out for this type of activity and run fast if you notice it).
Both the technical and fundamental forex analyst uses Forex charts. The technical analyst analyzes the "micro" movements, trying to match the actual occurrence with known patterns. The fundamental analyst on the other hand tries to find correlation between the trend seen on the chart and "macro" events occurring parallel to that like (political and other events).
As you can imagine, reading and understanding forex charts can get confusing for the inexperienced trader. You can get most charts now online, as part of a subscription service, and they most often include frequent updates. Because technical analysis is such a popular method of forecasting and predicting movements in the forex market, there are many services available online.
If you would like to become more proficient in Forex chart techniques (and I highly recommend you do), joining a service that provides charts via the Internet, and assistance in reading and analyzing the chart information, this can be very helpful and profitable in the end.
So let us not talk a little about the different types of Forex Charts Line Charts The simplest form, based upon the closing rates (in each time unit), forming a homogeneous line. (Such charts, on the 5 minutes scale, will show a line connecting all the actual rates every 5 minutes).
This forex chart does not show what happened during the time unit selected by the viewer, only closing rates for such a time. Line Charts are the best simple way to chart for support and resistance levels.
Point and figure charts
Point and Figure Charts are charts based on price without time. Unlike most investment charts, point and figure charts do not present a linear representation of time. Instead, they show trends in price. A rising stack of Xs represents increases, and a declining stack of Os represents decreases.
This type of chart used to filter out non-significant price movements, and enable you (the trader) to determine critical support and resistance levels quickly.
Bar Chart
This chart shows three rates for each time unit selected: the high, the low, the closing (HLC). There are also bar charts including four rates (OHLC, which includes the opening rate for the period). This chart provides clearly visible information about trading prices range during the time period (per unit) selected (very valuable information).
Candlestick Chart
Kind of chart based on an ancient Japanese method. The chart represents prices at their opening, high, low, and closing rates, in a form of candles, for each time unit selected. The empty (transparent) candles show increase, while the dark (full) candles represent decrease.
The length of the body shows the range between opening and closing, while the whole candle (including top and bottom wicks) show the whole range of trading prices for the selected time unit. Pattern recognition is a field within the area of "machine learning".
Alternatively defined as the act of take in raw data and taking an action based on the category of that data. As such, it is a collection of methods for "supervised learning".
A complete pattern recognition system consist of a sensor that gathers the observations to be classified or described; a feature extraction mechanism that computes numeric or symbolic information from the observations; and a classification or description scheme that does the actual job of classifying or describing observations, relying on the extracted features.
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADING INDICATORS
In general, the forex market uses the following patterns in candlestick forex charts:
Bullish Patterns - hammer, inverted hammer, engulfing, harami, harami cross, doji star, piercing line, morning star, morning doji star.
Bearish Patterns - shooting star, hanging man, engulfing, harami, harami cross, doji star, dark cloud cover, evening star, evening doji.
Note: Keep in mind these are just general and not all-inclusive as the forex market is huge and are so with the charts and techniques.
Let us now look at the top error made where forex charts are concerned and why you should stay away from them.
1. Predicting with Forex Charts
A common mistake made by inexperienced forex traders (and some more seasoned),is thinking they need to predict to get profitable results - but of course this is simply hoping or guessing and is destined to see you lose. If you use charts the correct way, you will trade using the price changes and trends, you will not need to predict.
There is a big industry in forex trading that says prices move to a scientific theory and you know what will happen next - but of course, if prices did move to science, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market.
Do not set yourself up and believe the prediction nonsense - make all your trades using reality of price change i.e. if a price comes to support, don't predict support will hold, wait for it to move the other way and trade based on the fact it has held.
Another great way to trade is to trade now breakouts to new highs or lows - it is a proven fact that most big moves start from these breakouts, so you should make breakouts a consistent part of your forex trading strategy.
Nevertheless, there are fewer and fewer traders today who do not rely to a very large degree on charting for their trading decisions.
