An alarm bell suddenly struck. I was clearly not focussing on the strength of USDCHF from the 0.9421 low but merely following the development. The elevated price was far, far too high to be capable of reversing lower back to 0.9421. I had been adamant that the penultimate leg down to 0.94273 (on the 29th August) could not have completed a 5-wave move. On that day we had a sharp snap decline towards the low. Therefore, I used 25 ticks to form a bar. Towards the low we saw a Wave iii at 0.94351. The Wave iv was a 0.91% retracement. The Wave v was a 3.2% projection. Never in my years in these markets have I ever witnessed such a minute development…
However, this now implies that we are now taken on a very different outlook. Yes, we shall still need a pullback. Not today. Well, maybe later in the day. While I had been looking for a deep pullback, this has all changed. It will be a modest pullback. It has also implied that the adjustments in USDJPY were not warranted. What we are seeing developing now is a Wave (a)/(iii).
So, for the most part – excluding USDCHF, GBPUSD and AUDUSD – we should now see new Dollar highs before a modestly deeper pullback.
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey
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