As I mentioned last week, we should have seen the lows in the Dollar. This spurred a rally and pullback. The question mark in my mind now is whether the market will attempt to try and force it back towards the lows or we’ll see follow-through to the Dollar upside. There are signs that we could see a deeper pullback but I’m not really expecting a new high in EURUSD or GBPUSD. As for the other two majors, USDJPY does have a little room on the downside and equally USDCHF also. I’d like to think that we have seen the Dollar lows in these two but it’s best to allow for potential new lows.
The other argument is that we should be looking for the first reversal targets, where appropriate, that should see a move into the span of the Wave (a)/(b) in Wave (iv). It’s both EURUSD and GBPUSD that have those targets, having seen a final Dollar low in an impulsive development. USDJPY and USDCHF have been declining in a correction for quite some time.
If I am to choose the outcome of the Dollar losses versus bullish, then it may be the deeper pullback. I note that AUDUSD broke above the 0.8124 high that was seen on the 8th September. Friday saw a high at 0.8135. However, there’s an impulsive target not far above. Even then we may only see a shallow correction and for gains to continue.
As for EURJPY, it all depends on the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY but I suspect the upside is more likely but only for a correction.
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey
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