I was partly satisfied by Friday’s development but it wasn’t exactly as I had planned. The general direction has been as expected although GBPUSD provided a rather neurotic development that could be seen as impulsive but with the limited ranges we’ll need losses soon, else it’ll end up pushing back above 1.3995. In terms of neurotic, even USDJPY has been a pain in the backside. I’ve even got to the stage of considering a triangle that started on the 16th February. However, having said that, the underlying outcome over the range of pairs still suggests a bullish Dollar.
For the most part, we appear to be close to a turning point but for a modest correction only. First, we should see follow-through higher in the Dollar and then a pullback. Sounds easy but this may take a day or two (or three) to revert to a stronger Dollar. This tends to suggest short-term trading for now but then when the reversal comes we can plan for another push higher.
EURJPY is rather similar to the Majors in terms of follow-through and pullback. This should limit the extent of any position, rather similar to the Dollar itself.
If there was any standout move, then it was in AUDUSD. The decline from the 0.7916 high has almost been a direct line lower. If I have caught this correctly, the Wave (ii) was just 8.1%... However, we’re coming to a lower degree reversal so probably it’ll begin to move into the Majors’ camp in a pullback over a day or two…
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey
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